Films, and such.

listening to: Superman (It's Not Easy) by Five For Fighting

just finished getting my daily dose of american election news.

im no political analyst, so pardon me if my thinking is flawed. don't laugh, please. (HAHA.)

the latest osama video has certainly added yet another twist to this election campaign.

tomorrow, america will vote. in my opinion, this video will help bush, simply cause its a reminder of terrorism, and bush is certainly an anti-terrorist guy. the latest poll supports this idea, as bush and kerry are now dead-locked at 48 points, whereas bush was trailing in the previous poll. the timing of the video is a bit suspicious, but let's not go talk about that for now.

bush's strategy for this election is to target the smaller states, which will help him gain votes more easily as compared to the big states. however, this strategy is flawed, thanks to the american system of voting, as winning a small state gives less votes than a big one. you win the state, you get all the votes. kerry, on the other hand, targets bigger states, but without the likes of florida, he doesn't have the clear advantage. of course, no matter how perfect your strategy is, voting is pretty much down to the ability of the candidates (or so we hope). so let's take a look.

i don;t like bush. he has, in four years, gained a tremendous amount of hatred. polls worldwide show the universal anti-bush feelings. he is flawed as a president, the "accidental president" from four years back (as one journalist calls him). his policies have hardly brought joy to anyone and unemployment is high. his attack on iraq will almost certainly cost him votes, and he is a less able politician than kerry. but, after all i've said, i still think he will win this election. why?

well, kerry is hardly as capable as many percive him to be. the only reason people seem to be voting for him seem to be because they dislike bush. something like, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. i haven't read anything about his achievements as senator. in fact, kerry himself spends bulk of his time attacking bush rather than promoting his achievements. i think the fact that he doesn't show his own capabilities will cost him, cause america's pro bush or not. he has the support of anti-bush, but to win, he'll need to win over the pro-bush too. and to do so will require him not only to criticise bush, but to flaunt his abilities. so by not showing off, i think it'll cost him.

furthermore, bush has an advantage in going through this before. he defeated al gore a few years back, has years of experience and has a father who is an ex president. this advantage shows by how bush campaigns. he has learnt to attack kerry in his own states, to publicize effectively.

so, UNFORTUNATELY, i think bush, spurred on by osama's message, will win.

of course i could be wrong. heck, i have never predicted anything right yet on my blog. england lost to portugal and a host of other bad predictions. my heart says kerry, but my head says bush. commments anyone?

time to get back to studying. tag if you wanna be heard. ta.